WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 60.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10 with 506 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 63.2%. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.