Results of a new poll conducted by FOX News were published. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
FOX News poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 18 to September 20, among a random sample of 734 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.7%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the FOX News poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.