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DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 46.4% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will end up with 53.6%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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