Civitas (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump have identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 12 among 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina sees Clinton at 49.3% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.0% and Trump 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.