New KABC/SurveyUSA poll in California: Trump trails by a whopping margin
KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 32.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11, among a random sample of 678 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.5%. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.