OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.