Results of a new poll conducted by NY Times/Siena were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
NY Times/Siena poll results
The results show that 45.0% of respondents would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 16 to September 19, among a random sample of 782 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.3%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NY Times/Siena poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.