Results of a new poll administered by ElonElon were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 12 and September 16. The sample size was 644 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Trump is currently at 50.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the ElonElon poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.