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Keys to the White House model: Trump is in the lead

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The Keys to the White House model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 49.7% for Clinton, and 50.3% for Trump. In comparison, on September 1, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 48.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single index models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.6%. This value is 3.7 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.

The Keys to the White House model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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