The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will end up with 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 50.0% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.