The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton currently runs at 53.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.1 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.