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Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.6% for Clinton, and 43.4% for Trump. In comparison, on September 1, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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