Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were circulated. The poll asked participants from Iowa for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular value.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of respondents will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 13 to September 21 with 612 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 53.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Iowa. In comparison to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Trump's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.