Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often incorporate substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.2%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the PollyVote is 5.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.