Polly the parrot currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. When taking previous election years into account, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.
A look at the component methods
The component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five predict a win for Clinton and one predicts that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 50.3%.
Combined polls predict a vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.7% of the vote.
Trump lost 12.6 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 54.2% in prediction markets is noticeably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. At that time, prediction markets predicted a vote share of 52.3% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.