WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 60.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10, among a random sample of 506 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 63.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.7 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.