The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 47.2% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, while Trump will win 52.8%. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.