The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 46.4% for Clinton, and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 53.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.