Results of a new poll administered by PPP (D) were announced. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, real estate developer Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have the exact same level of support, each with 47.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from September 18 to September 20 with 1024 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. On March 20 Clinton obtained 51.2% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained only 48.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.3%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.9% and Trump 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.1 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.