Civitas (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Civitas (R) poll results
According to the results, both candidates can draw on identical levels of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 11 to September 12. A total of 600 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.3%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points better in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.9% and Trump 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Clinton has 0.1 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for North Carolina. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.