ElonElon published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16. A total of 644 likely voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.9 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of North Carolina polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.7%. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the ElonElon poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.