FOX News released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX News poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 18 to September 20 among 734 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the FOX News poll Trump's poll average is 2.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.7 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.