ElonElon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ElonElon poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 12 to September 16, among a random sample of 644 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 50.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the ElonElon poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.5 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.