Results of a new poll administered by Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Minnesota for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 25 to April 27. A total of 800 registered voters responded. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 57.8% for Clinton and 42.2% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.