In today's update, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will gain 52.5% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.5% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
In contrast to the combined PollyVote, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.3%.
Combined polls predict a vote share of 51.6% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 49.7% the econometric models deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 51.2% in expectation polls is noticeably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 50.8% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.