Results of a new poll carried out by Suffolk University were announced. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
The results show that 41.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 5 and September 7. The sample size was 500 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in North Carolina has Trump at 50.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.