Jerome model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 47.2% for Clinton, and 52.8% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to win 52.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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