Jerome model: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 86.4% for Clinton, and 13.6% for Trump. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was still predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 91.0% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 4.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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