The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.7%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the best practice is to use combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.4 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.