Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 1000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on April 11 Clinton received only 54.6%, while Trump received 45.5%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.2% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.