The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 66.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 61.1% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.