DeSart model in Vermont: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 66.5% for Clinton, and 33.5% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to collect only 33.5% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.