DeSart model in North Carolina: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 46.4% for Clinton, and 53.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with 53.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they often include substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 50.1% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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