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DeSart model in Kansas: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, whereas Trump will win 64.0%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Kansas. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 7.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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