DeSart model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 70.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 29.9%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 29.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.5% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 3.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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