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Healthy lead for Clinton in McClatchy poll

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McClatchy published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

McClatchy poll results
48

Clinton

41

Trump

According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 20. A total of 758 participants responded. The error margin is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. To compare: 59.3% was obtained by Clinton in the McClatchy poll on August 3, for Trump this result was only 40.7%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.6%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the McClatchy poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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