McClatchy published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
McClatchy poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 20. A total of 758 participants responded. The error margin is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. To compare: 59.3% was obtained by Clinton in the McClatchy poll on August 3, for Trump this result was only 40.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.6%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the McClatchy poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.