Results of a new national poll conducted by McClatchy/Marist were distributed. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
McClatchy/Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 20 via phone. A total of 758 likely voters responded. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump. To compare: Only 40.7% was gained by Clinton in the McClatchy/Marist poll on August 3, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.6%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the McClatchy/Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.4 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.