KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 8 and September 11. The sample size was 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 61.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.