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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on September 22, Clinton was predicted to win only 50.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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