Results of a new national poll carried out by LA Times were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
LA Times poll results
The results show that 43.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 16 to September 21. A total of 2623 respondents responded. The sampling error is +/-4.5 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they often include large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump. On September 20 Clinton obtained only 47.7% in the LA Times poll and Trump obtained 52.3%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 48.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the LA Times poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.6 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.