UtahPolicy/Dan Jones released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Utah were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, 27.0% of participants are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between June 8 and June 17. The sample size was 614 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 61.3% of the two-party vote in Utah. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 4.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.