In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will end up with 52.5% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.5% for Trump. Considering previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.
This is what the component methods expect
The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will be the next POTUS: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 50.4%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are expert surveys with a vote share of 53.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.7% of the vote.
Trump lost 13.1 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The econometric models forecast of 49.7% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably low relative to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.