Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were announced. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 among 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.