Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to September 21. A total of 700 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.