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New Emerson poll in Illinois: Trump trails by a marginal margin


Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Emerson poll results




Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 19 to September 21. A total of 700 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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