KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 11, among a random sample of 678 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.0% for Clinton and 36.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 61.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.