Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.3% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.7%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single index models, we recommend to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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