Results of a new national poll conducted by Ipsos/Reuters were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Ipsos/Reuters poll results
According to the results, real estate developer Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have the exact same level of support, each with 39.0% of the vote.
The Internet poll was carried out from September 15 to September 19 with 1111 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share. In the latest Ipsos/Reuters poll on August 30 Clinton received 50.6%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 51.4% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.4 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.