PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 61.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between April 15 and April 17. The sample size was 879 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 68.5% for Clinton and 31.5% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's prediction is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.