Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 5.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.