Results of a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks were published. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
The results show that 54.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.7 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, the PollyVote is 4.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.